Estimating the Value of Time in High-Speed Rail versus Air Travel )A Stated Preference Analysis of Socio-Economic, Environmental, and Psychological Factors in Iran's Tehran-Mashhad Corridor(

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Mohammad Feli 1
Ali Naderan 2
Mahmoud Saffarzadeh 3
1 Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Civil Engineering, SR.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, SR.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Professor, Faculty of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
10.22034/road.2025.558091.2451
Abstract
This study rigorously examines the Value of Time (VOT) in mode choice between High-Speed Rail (HSR) and air travel along Iran’s Tehran-Mashhad corridor, addressing critical gaps in environmental, socio-economic, and psychological factors influencing traveler preferences. Employing a Stated Preference survey with 100 respondents across 18 scenarios, we utilized Multinomial Logit (MNL) models grounded in Random Utility Theory to estimate VOT, revealing its remarkable stability across specifications. Despite incorporating variables such as INCOME (financial affordability), SFTCN (safety concerns and fear of flying), and ENVDDCS (environmental decision-making importance), VOT remained consistent, reflecting the robust algebraic structure of the time-cost trade-off and the scale invariance of logit models. Model 37, integrating these variables with base attributes (time, cost, comfort), achieved the highest pseudo-R-squared (0.2376) and log-likelihood (-1902.5), offering superior explanatory power for traveler behavior in this corridor. These findings underscore HSR’s potential to compete with air travel, particularly for environmentally conscious and cost-sensitive segments, informing sustainable transport policies in Iran. Limitations include potential hypothetical bias in Stated Preference data and a modest sample size, suggesting future validation with Revealed Preference data or larger, diverse samples. Extending analyses to other Iranian corridors or employing advanced models like Mixed Logit could capture unobserved heterogeneity, enhancing VOT precision. This research advances understanding of mode choice dynamics, guiding infrastructure investments that balance efficiency, sustainability, and equity in Iran’s evolving transportation landscape, particularly in the Tehran-Mashhad corridor.
Keywords
Value of Time (VOT)
High-Speed Rail (HSR)
Mode Choice
Utility
Stated Preference
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