Department of Economics, Faculty of Law and Economics, Arak university, Arak, Iran
Abstract
According the importance of the transport sector in the economic structure and its crucial role in development process of trade and other economic variables, identify variables affecting activities of this sectors have a high necessity. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the value added of the transportation sector from the reducing trade channel. For this purpose, the data for Iran economic in period of 1991-2017 are used and the Bayesian Vector Auto-Regressive (BVAR) model applied to estimates the coefficients. In this study, the Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model is used for calculation of uncertainty in the exchange rate. Results indicate on the negative impacts of exchange rate uncertainty on the transport value added, the estimated coefficient of this variable is negative and statistical significant. Results also shows that GDP and oil revenues has the significant positive impact on the transport value added, but transport price level didn’t have a significant impact.