Hazard Rate of Iranian’s Corridors in Transit
Document Type : Original Article
Author
Instructor, Housing & Urban Development Research Center, Tehran, Iran.
Abstract
Using quantitative models can be a good tool for planning or evaluation. In this regard, given the multifaceted transit (economic, social, political, transportation), estimating the market size and the share of Iran's corridors is the starting point for planning. In this paper, initially, the transit potential is estimated. For prediction, it is applied the gravity model. It is based on examining the trade trends between the economic blocs in the region and beyond. In the next step, implemented the Logit model, for estimating Iran's share of the transit market. The results show that current transit demand is 92 million tones, which is expected to reach 118 million tones based on economic assumptions. Travel time through Iran's corridors without the China-Turkmenistan block is potentially reduced by up to 70%. The likelihood of Turkey-Turkmenistan, India-Ukraine, India-Caucasian economic blocks being attracted to Iran Corridors is 75%, Turkey-India, Turkey-UAE, China-Ukraine, India-Russia 73% and attracting trade between China-Turkmenistan countries and Russia-UAE is estimated at 20%.
Keywords
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