Modeling the Severity of Road Accidents Using Structural Equations (Case Study: Kerman Province)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Seyed Ebrahim Abdolmanafi 1
Alireza Sarkar 1
Amir Hossein Jashnian 2
Samira Yari 2
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, SR.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Department of Civil Engineering, SR.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
10.22034/road.2025.481737.2322
Abstract
Road accidents are one of the leading causes of mortality worldwide and a significant source of economic losses for countries. This study examines the factors influencing the severity of accidents on rural roads in Kerman Province using path analysis via Partial Least Squares (PLS) method. Data from 763 accidents between 2015 and 2017 were analyzed to assess the impact of variables such as weather conditions, road surface status, road geometry, driver characteristics, lighting conditions, type of vehicle, and time of the accident on accident severity. The results of the structural equation modeling showed that the road factor had the highest impact on accident severity, with a factor loading of 1.702. Additionally, driver age, with a factor loading of 0.997, was identified as the strongest determinant in the human factor category, and road lighting, with a factor loading of 0.946, was recognized as the most important variable in the environmental factor category. These findings can help inform the development of effective policies to reduce accident severity and improve road safety.
Keywords
Path Analysis
Structural Equation Modeling
Traffic Accidents
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