Analysis and Evaluation of the Impact of Various Factors on the Probability of Contracting COVID-19 in Different Modes of Urban Public Transportation.

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Amir Hossein Jashnian 1
Mohammad Amin Ebrahimzadeh 2
Amirreza Khosrozade 3
1 Department of Civil Engineering, SR.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Transportation Planning Civil Engineering Group, Faculty of Engineering, Imam Khomeini International University (IKIU), Qazvin, Iran.
3 Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Architectural Art, Azad University of Science and Research, Tehran, Iran.
10.22034/road.2025.496972.2352
Abstract
Today, urban transportation and traffic are key issues in urban and regional planning, as they form a crucial part of urban infrastructure. These systems enable human interactions and the flow of people, goods, energy, and information. This study aims to assess the risk of COVID-19 infection in various modes of transportation in Tehran, considering different age and gender groups. In simple terms, the study examines how gender, age, and the mode of transportation used influence citizens' risk of contracting the COVID-19 virus. Using a choice modeling approach and logistic regression, this research analyzes and evaluates various factors contributing to the risk of COVID-19 infection across different modes of urban transportation. The study's sample consists of 150 Tehran residents. The results of the fitted choice model indicated that five factors significantly increased the risk of infection. Furthermore, the effect of these factors was higher in buses compared to other modes of transportation. The results from the logistic regression model, based on the four main factors identified, show the probability of infection across different transport modes. According to the findings, buses have the highest risk of infection, while private cars have the lowest risk.
Keywords
COVID-19
Logistic Regression
Choice Model
Risk Assessment
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