The effect of economic inequality, employment and economic growth on road fatalities in Iran (Autoregressive Distributional Lags (ARDL) model)

Document Type : Original Article

Author
Ashkan Rahimzadeh
Department of Economics, Za.C., Islamic Azad University, Zanjan, Iran.
10.22034/road.2025.560915.2455
Abstract
Road injuries are one of the most important development challenges in Iran and have wide economic and social consequences. This study aimed to investigate the role of economic inequality, employment, and economic growth in road traffic fatalities in order to clarify the contribution of macroeconomic factors in increasing or decreasing road safety. Time series data related to the variables of accident fatalities, inequality (Gini coefficient), employment, and GDP were analyzed in an autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) model to identify long-term relationships between them. The results showed that there is a stable and significant relationship between the variables and that income inequality is the most important increasing factor in fatalities. Also, increasing employment and economic growth in the absence of effective safety and distribution policies can exacerbate fatalities. The error correction coefficient showed that the system returns to long-term equilibrium at a rate of about 6.4 percent per period. The findings indicate that economic development will only lead to a reduction in casualties if it is accompanied by policies to reduce inequality, promote social justice, improve safety infrastructure, and public education; otherwise, economic growth alone will not guarantee a sustainable reduction in casualties.
Keywords
Road Traffic Fatalities
Economic Inequality
Employment
GDP
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