Feasibility Assessment of Developing and Operating Electric Bicycles (E-Bikes) from a Sustainable Development Perspective: A Case Study of Shahrak-e Gharb, Tehran

Rapid metropolitan population growth and increasing dependence on private cars have made the transition to sustainable transportation imperative. As a micro-mobility option, electric bicycles (e-bikes) can enhance urban mobility; however, their adoption depends on citizens’ value systems and travel behavior. This study assesses the feasibility of e-bike use in the automobile-oriented Shahrak-e Gharb district of Tehran. Data were collected from 384 respondents through random sampling and a validated questionnaire. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was applied to prioritize sustainable development dimensions, and a decision-tree model was used to predict adoption. Overall, the results indicate that the social dimension is the highest priority (weight = 0.614), with safety and security (weight = 0.308) identified as the primary prerequisite for acceptance. This is followed by health and physical activity (0.289) and travel time savings (0.164). The economic dimension ranks next (0.287), with reductions in operating costs considered more important than the initial investment cost. In contrast, the environmental dimension receives a low weight (0.099); perceived benefits such as reduced traffic congestion and improved air quality do not outweigh concerns related to safety and time. The decision-tree model achieves an accuracy of nearly 90%, identifying daily travel distance as the strongest predictor, while theft concerns and car ownership emerge as key determinants. The potential market is concentrated in 3–15 km trips, particularly among younger residents and single-car households.