Predicting Urban Transportation Mode Shares Based on Service Pricing Using a Multinomial Logit Model and Multivariate Regression Approach

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Mohamad Hamevand 1
Iraj Nouri 2
Mohammad Sadegh Hori 2
1 Ph.D. Student, Department of Management, Ar.C., Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran.
2 Department of Management, Ar.C., Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran.
10.22034/road.2026.580543.2482
Abstract
This research aims to analyze the effect of pricing on mode choice behavior and predict the share of transportation modes in Mashhad, by examining three scenarios for the development of Metro Line 3: no operation, limited operation, and full operation. For this purpose, the stated preference-based mode choice modeling method, based on the multinomial logit model, was employed, and five-year price data were extracted. Subsequently, by integrating this data and the outputs of the VISUM software, final multivariate regression models were developed to predict transportation mode shares. The findings indicate that private car and taxi modes exhibit the highest elasticity and sensitivity to changes in fares and parking costs, while the metro shows the lowest price sensitivity. Furthermore, the model results suggest that price can be utilized as an effective policy tool for managing travel demand, although the final implementation of pricing policies necessitates consideration of operational constraints and expert opinions. This study, by providing an efficient framework for determining transportation service prices and analyzing their effects, can be utilized in the planning and policymaking for Mashhad’s urban transportation. However, for comprehensive demand management, simultaneous attention to non-price factors such as service quality, travel time, and accessibility is also essential.
Keywords
Urban Transport
Mashhad
Sensitivity Analysis
Mode Share Prediction
Metro Line 3
Transport Pricing
Multinomial Logit Model
Software
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