Modeling the delay of urban bus services and technical-economic analysis of delay reduction

Punctuality of bus fleet movement in urban public transportation systems is one of the main foundations of passenger satisfaction. The present study aims to quantify the delay rate of bus services and identify the most effective methods to reduce it on urban routes. The study area is the bus network of Shiraz metropolitan city. To achieve the research objectives, field data including the number of boarding and alighting passengers, number of stations, dwell time at each station, and fare payment method (cash or electronic card) were collected from 28 buses operating on 14 main routes. Using multiple linear regression analysis, a model for estimating delay time was developed. Findings indicate that the number of boarding and alighting passengers, dwell time at stations, number of stations, and use of electronic fare cards (with negative effect) have the greatest share in predicting delay, respectively. Based on the results, replacing cash payments with electronic cards can reduce delay time by up to 32 percent. Additionally, constructing bay stops and developing intelligent information display systems are introduced as the most effective technical-economic solutions.