جاده

جاده

برآورد ارزش زمان در رقابت قطار سریع‌السیر با سفر هوایی (تحلیلی مبتنی بر رجحان بیان‌شده از عوامل اجتماعی- اقتصادی، محیط زیستی و روان‌شناختی در کریدور تهران- مشهد)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه عمران، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی تهران، ایران
2 استادیار، گروه عمران، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
3 استاد، دانشکده مهندسی عمران و محیط‌زیست، دانشگاه تربیت‌مدرس، تهران، ایران
چکیده
این مطالعه به بررسی ارزش زمان در انتخاب شیوه سفر میان قطار سریع‌السیر و سفر هوایی در کریدور تهران- مشهد می‌پردازد و خلاهای موجود در شناسایی تاثیر عوامل محیط زیستی، اجتماعی- اقتصادی و روان‌شناختی مؤثر بر ترجیحات مسافران را مورد توجه قرار می‌دهد. با به‌کارگیری یک پرسش‌گری رجحان بیان‌شده از ۱۰۰ مشارکت‌کننده در ۱۸ سناریو، از مدل‌های لوجیت چندجمله‌ای، بر پایه نظریه مطلوبیت تصادفی، برای برآورد ارزش زمان استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد علی‌رغم گنجاندن متغیرهایی چون درآمد، نگرانی‌های ایمنی و ترس از پرواز، و اهمیت تصمیم‌گیری‌های زیست‌محیطی، ارزش زمان ثابت باقی ماند که این امر بازتاب‌دهنده ساختار جبری قوی مبادله زمان- هزینه و خاصیت عدم تغییر مقیاس مدل‌های لوجیت است. مدل شماره ۳۷، که متغیرهای نگرانی‌های ایمنی پرواز، درآمد و اهمیت تصمیم‌گیری‌های زیست‌محیطی را با ویژگی‌های پایه (زمان، هزینه، راحتی) یکپارچه ساخت، با کسب بالاترین R2 کاذب و لگاریتم درست‌نمایی 5/1920- قدرت تبیینی برتری برای رفتار مسافران در این کریدور ارائه داد. این یافته‌ها بر پتانسیل قطار سریع‌السیر برای رقابت با سفر هوایی، به ویژه در بخش‌های آگاه به محیط زیست و حساس به هزینه، تأکید نموده و سیاست‌های حمل و نقل پایدار در ایران را هدایت می‌نمایند.
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