Investigating the Effect of Gasoline Price and Income on Road Traffic Fatalities in Iran (NARDL Approach)

Document Type : Original Article

Author
Ashkan Rahimzadeh
Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Islamic Azad University, Zanjan Branch, Zanjan, Iran.
10.22034/road.2024.418900.2206
Abstract
The main purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of gasoline price and per capita income on road traffic fatalities in Iran. . The statistical data used in this research are from the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the World Bank during the period of 1374-1401 and the estimation of the proposed model is with EViews 10 software. Two autoregressive approaches with linear ARDL and non-linear NARDL explanatory lags are considered in the estimation. The asymmetric effect, or in other words, the positive and negative changes in gasoline prices, on the number of confirmed road fatalities, and the coefficient of the error correction sentence is -0.370. A positive (increasing) change in the price of gasoline has a decreasing effect on road traffic losses, and a negative (decreasing) change in the price of gasoline has an increasing effect on road traffic losses. With a one percent increase in this variable, road traffic fatalities will decrease from 21.5 to 21.497 per hundred thousand people. With a one percent decrease in this variable, road traffic casualties will increase from 21.5 to 21.504 per hundred thousand people. Also, the impact of positive per capita income and its one percent increase increases fatalities from 21.5 to 21.504 per hundred thousand people.
Keywords
Road Traffic Fatalities
Petrol Prices
Per Capita Income
NARDL
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