Mapping and analyzing the cause-and-effect network between the risks of residential building projects in Iran: An approach based on the social network analysis (SNA)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Milad Aghililotf 1
Mohammad Mahdi Heydari 2
Neda Soltani Halvaei 3
Amir Mohammad Ramezanianpour 4
Omid Bamshad 5
1 Ph.D., Candidate, School of Civil Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Road, Housing and Development Research Center, Department of construction project management, Tehran, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Information Technology and Computer Engineering, Azarbaijan Shahid Madani University, Tabriz, Iran.
4 Associate Professor, School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
5 Department of Civil Engineering, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.
10.22034/road.2025.490421.2336
Abstract
In recent qualitative analysis of risks, the cause-and-effect relationship among risks and its impact on the final ranking, is questioned. It is worth to note that in usual methods which are conducted for ranking the risks, it is assumed that all variables are independent. But in a real case, it should be noted that a cause-and-effect relationships among risks is exist and consequently, the occurrence of one risk can impact on the probability of the occurrence of others. This important fact has not been seen in the process of conventional project risk ratings (functions including probability and effect). Due to this, in this article, 30 risks in residential building projects in Iran were first identified and then, using an innovative approach based on social network analysis tool (SNA), the cause-and-effect network between risks was drawn and analyzed. The results showed that the weighted in degree centrality and the weighted out degree centrality lead to the interpretable results, but the analysis of the betweenness centrality and closeness centrality showed that the results are not interpretable. As well, in this research the 10 most important risks based on engineering judgment and final results of weighted in/out degree centrality, were identified and analyzed.
Keywords
Housing
Risk management
Social network analysis (SNA)
Project management
Construction industry
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