جاده

جاده

مدل‌سازی شدت تصادفات جاده‌ای با استفاده از معادلات ساختاری (مطالعه موردی: استان کرمان)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 استادیار، دانشکده عمران، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
2 دانشجوی دکتری، دانشکده عمران، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
3 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد، دانشکده عمران، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
تصادفات رانندگی یکی از عوامل اصلی مرگ‌ومیر در جهان و منبع مهم خسارات اقتصادی برای کشورها محسوب می‌شود. این تحقیق به بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر شدت تصادفات در راه‌های برون‌شهری استان کرمان با استفاده از تحلیل مسیر به روش حداقل مربعات جزئی پرداخته است. داده‌های مربوط به 763 تصادف از سال‌های 1394 تا 1396 برای ارزیابی تأثیر متغیرهایی همچون شرایط آب و هوایی، وضعیت سطح راه، هندسه مسیر، مشخصات راننده، وضعیت روشنایی، نوع وسیله‌نقلیه و زمان وقوع تصادف بر شدت تصادفات مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. نتایج مدل‌سازی معادلات ساختاری نشان داد که عامل جاده با بار عاملی 1.702 بیشترین تأثیر را بر شدت آسیب‌دیدگی تصادفات داشته است. همچنین سن راننده با بار عاملی 0.997 به عنوان قوی‌ترین متغیر تبیین‌کننده در عامل انسانی و روشنایی راه با بار عاملی 0.946 به عنوان مهم‌ترین متغیر در عامل محیطی شناسایی شدند. این یافته‌ها می‌توانند به توسعه سیاست‌های مؤثر برای کاهش شدت تصادفات و بهبود ایمنی جاده‌ها کمک کنند.
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