جاده

جاده

سرریز نوسان بین بازار نفت و بازار کرایه حمل

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده
دانشیار، گروه مدیریت حمل‌ونقل دریایی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه علوم و فنون دریایی خرمشهر، خرمشهر، ایران
چکیده
پیشرفت تکنولوژی اطلاعاتی باعث تأثیر بازارها از هم شده است که با توجه به معامله پذیری نرخ کرایه حمل درک صحیح از نوسان و سرریز بازار امری ضروری برای معامله گران نرخ کرایه حمل است. مقاله حاضر به بررسی سرریز نوسان بین بازار نفت و بازار کرایه حمل نفت‌کش‌ها و کالاهای فله ، می‌پردازد. این بررسی با استفاده از داده‌های روزانه انجام شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهند که بازار نفت‌کش‌ها سرریز نوسان بیشتری داشته و بازار حمل‌ونقل کالاهای فله نوسان کمتری را تجربه می‌کند. این موضوع نشان‌دهنده یکپارچگی بیشتر بازار نفت‌کش نسبت به بازار کالای فله و بازار نفت است. نوسانات قیمت نفت سهم بیشتری در سرریز نوسان به بازار نفت‌کش دارند. در دوره‌هایی که کاهش شدید قیمت نفت رخ می‌دهد و نوسان در بازار نفت افزایش می‌یابد، قیمت نفت منبع مهم سرریز نوسان است. در بازار کرایه حمل کالای فله، هرچه اندازه کشتی‌ها کوچک‌تر باشد، میزان سرریز نوسان بیشتر است و بالعکس، در کشتی‌های بزرگ‌تر کمتر خواهد بود. در دوره‌های جنگ‌های منطقه‌ای سرریز نوسان شدت بیشتری دارد.
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