ارزیابی عوامل موثر بر شدت تصادفات عابرین پیاده در خیابانهای شهری و ارائه مدلی برای پیش‌بینی این تصادفات (مطالعه موردی شهر قزوین)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه مهندسی عمران، واحد سوادکوه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، سوادکوه، ایران

2 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مهندسی عمران، واحد آیت ا... آملی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، آمل، ایران

چکیده

اخیراً بـا افـزایش رشـد تولید وسایل نقلیه از یک طرف و افزایش جمعیت شـهرها و روستاها از طرف دیگر، توجه کافی به بحث عابران پیـاده بـه خصوص از بعد ایمنی آن، از اهمیت زیادی برخوردار شده اسـت. طی سالهای اخیر، میزان و رشـد تلفات عابران پیاده در شهرهای بزرگ کشور در مقایسه با کشورهای در حال توسـعه رقـم بالایی شده است. هدف از این مطالعه، بررسی تأثیرگذاری مشخصات و رفتار عابر پیاده، مشخصات محیطی و زمان وقوع تصادفات عابر پیاده بر روی احتمال وقوع آسیب-دیدگی‌های عابر پیاده و ارائه مدلی برای تعیین احتمال وقوع هر یک از آسیب‌دیدگی‌های شدید یا جزئی برای متغیرهای مستقل تعریف شده در مدل، برای تصادفات وسایل نقلیه با عابرین پیاده در بلوار جمهوری اسلامی شهر قزوین به عنوان نمونه موردی است. از این رو، با استفاده از داده‌های بدست آمده از سازمان پزشکی قانونی استان و نیز پلیس راهنمایی و رانندگی که مربوط به تصادفات ترافیکی سال 1397 تا 1399 می‌باشند، اقدام به مد‌‌‌ل‌سازی این عوامل با استفاده از مدل رگرسیون لجستیک شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که میزان تحصیلات عابر پیاده، زمان تصادف، سرعت وسیله‌نقلیه و رنگ لباس عابر پیاده تاثیرگذارترین عوامل در احتمال وقوع آسیب‌دیدگی شدید هستند.

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